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oxooc ocyapcex pyex oa 3 ec. 6 ec. 1 o 2 oa 3 oa 4 oa 6 e (45001) (46001) 28.12.01 15,84% 16,09% 15,28% 16,53% 16,41% - 28.06.02 13,33% 13,55% 14,26% 15,61% 16,43% 17,17% 29.11.02 12,58% 12,88% 13,37% 13,32% 13,53% 13,99% 13,99% 27.12.02 13,22% 13,08% 13,15% 13,30% 13,49% 13,86% 13,80% Ha ay e oxooc pyex ocyapcex oa eape oaa e a poooox aopa o pyeo oc epe e ea eca cpeee yaco pa acpoa p o oa oa.

Cpeeee ca o aec pee ooe eaoc pea c 1 o 20 eap e pea 3,6%, o ec ocaoo ypoe. poaa pyex oa, cpy p, cya ocoo ee cpee a, a oyae pyee yac pa.

eee opeoc ao pyex cpecax c c ape aaco poeee aoox aee pee eae eap peo eoopoy ce e ocyapcex oa. Oao oeeee ee ya ca o peae yaco pa, a a 2003 oy oaec poc e cee % oxooc pyex oa c c aeee eo . B peyae ec x aopo oxooc pyex oa a ec eac eaeo.

Peaa oxooc O, paccaa c yeo aeco poopyeo 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1o 2 oa 3 oa Coo e oee ae, paccae o aeco , a ypo ae, paccae c yeo poopyeo . cooa ceye poo : a 2003 . - 11,8%, a 2004 . 9,0%, a 2005 . 7,3%.

Peya ayoo o paee O O eape aa ayoa 4.12.02 18.12.Hoep yca 21165 aa oae 23.07.03 10.09.Cpo opae, e 231 Oe cc, o oao cooc, p. pye. 5,000 7,Cpoc, o oao cooc, p. pye 3,099 5,aecoe paeee, p. pye 2,805 4,Bpya, p. pye 2,593 4,ea ocee, % o oaa 92,34 93,Cpeeeea ea, % o oaa 92,44 93,oxooc o ee ocee, % o 13,10 13,oxooc o cpeeeeo ee, % o 12,92 13,pe oxooc opoo pa, % o -0,B eape o poeeo a ayoa o paee ooo yca O opaee yca O 46001. Ceye oe, o ooe pa yca aopaox O 46001 paee 18 eap e pe oxooc opoo pa. p o paeee cocao 70% o oeoo oea cc.

B eo poe o xapaepoac ae pae pa ocyapcex pyex oa.

% o a.a.a.o.o.o.e.e.e.ap.ap.e.e.... Bepe epe exa ayoo paee poe oa co cpoa o oae 4,5 oa 6 e, o cpee- oocpox cpyeo cpyype paeaex oa ae poca. Mcepco aco eo opaee o oocpo cpye ypeeo oa aopaoe oa.

Oea epa aopaox oa ae oe cc, oecea coy oc a opo pe, pacpeee ey eco aa oae. Paeee oocpox cpyeo peo yee pa ypeeo oa. a 2002 o pa ypeeo oa, opaaeoc a pe, poca c 370 o 486 e.

yee poe ypee acoa. o peo yee oea O O, opaaxc a opo pe co 160 o 217 p. pye o oao cooc.

oxooc ocyapcex pyex oa a opo pe cac a poe o a 2-3 .. cooec c aeee eo . Tae cc poee ca p epo paee.

Pe acoa P aoao ae oe eee oa a p cye (c ypo B+ o ypo BB+) aeco Standard&Poors a e cye (c ypo B o ypo BB-) aeco FitchRatings.

a Pocc e oe cpye peypoa aoco oc eeeoe peacpoae ao o ao ocyapcex pyex oa, ayo opaoo PEO eoe ayo.

oxooc OBB 2003 2006 2007 2008 % 08.01.22.01.05.02.19.02.05.03.19.03.02.04.16.04.30.04.14.05.28.05.11.06.25.06.09.07.23.07.06.08.20.08.03.09.17.09.01.10.15.10.29.10.12.11.26.11.10.12.24.12.oxooc Epooa P 2003 2005 2007 2010 2018 B eape cee oxooc epooa P oa ypeeo aoo aa pocaooc. B peecye ec eoo poc a pe ax oa P oepac oa oe pea ax acoa P. B eape cpay a peox aeca Standard&Poors Moodys o pe ax acoa P a o y.

5 eap peooe aeco Standard&Poors oo o oe oocpooo cyepeoo pea Poccco eepa. oocpo pe acoa P ocpao ae oe a o y c BB- o BB.

oocpo pe acoa P pyx poc cpay a 2 ya c BB- o BB+. Coaco ae pecaee aeca, oee cyepeoo pea P opaae pepeoc pyooca Pocc eeo aooo-eo oe coepecoa cce ypae oo, o c oo oe epooc cae oooc opaa ey ea cpeecpoo epcee.



Te e eee, oee pea P o a acoa peo eaeoy ce oxooc ax oa P oceye . Ha a , o o oycoeo e, o oaeoe oee pea ex acoa P ye o yeo eax ax oa P.

17 eap peooe aeco Moodys oo o oe pea o oocpo a acoa P a o y, o ypo Ba2. Paee pecae Moodys a, o pe ax acoa P oe oe cpay a a ya. Ta opao, oooe yyee pea ax acoa P epecao ooo p a oee.

Opeeey po eoo a cpa ceo aop - cee cpoca a ae oa P c c aao poececx ay y oca ocpax yaco pa o opo ooe eap. Be o pooaac aacoa Beecye, cea ooecoo oa acpa CA oa aaa % 08.01.22.01.05.02.19.02.05.03.19.03.02.04.16.04.30.04.14.05.28.05.11.06.25.06.09.07.23.07.06.08.20.08.03.09.17.09.01.10.15.10.29.10.12.11.26.11.10.12.24.12.oeo oepa pae ae eaop ax oa paaxc po.

18 eap 2002 oa o apo peoee o oee oepeco aoeoc eo CCCP. aoeoc epe oepec peopa eo CCCP a epeoopea a ycox, aaox pecpyypa aoeoc oocoy yy peopo. epeoopee peoaao, c oo copo, acee poeo a epo cyecoa pocpoeo aoeoc, c pyo copo, ccae ac ocooo oa cooec c yco pecpyypa aoeoc oocoy yy peopo, poeeo ayce 2000 oa. Ta opao, aoeoc a cyy 1,28 p. oapo a epeoopea epooa P co cpoa oae 2006-2010 oax (a cyy 183,8 . oapo) co cpoa oae 2007-2030 oax (a cyy 1,19 p. oapo). B cooec c yco peoe o oee, e ap peoe o oee oepec peopa ae 171,5 . oapo.

poe 2002 o ca oo eooo poca a pe ax oa P.

oxooc oa ypeeo aoo aa cac a 5-6 .., a oxooc epooa P a 2-4 .. Cpe ey oxooc OBB oxooc epooa P copac. Pe ax acoa P 2002 oe ce pe aeca FitchRatings (o BB-), Moodys (o Ba2 aeo BB) Standard&Poors (o BB).

Bam po B 2002 . oa oe ypc py oapy CA poc a 5,5% a py 64 oe (ae a 31 eap 2001 2002 .) o coco a oe oa acpoa a oee 31,78 pye a oap. Cpeeec ppoc pae 0,5%.

cpae 2001 . py oeee oae a 7,0%.

B peao pae py ypec a 6,9% (ae a oe epo), o pe a poo oy o oaae pae 7,8%. Paccaoe a ae cpeeecx ae ypca ypeee cocao 6,6% 2002 . po 7,2% 2001 . o oy ycee py oaaoc pa 5,6% aa ypca py oapy CA 35 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 5 40% - a- ce- - a- ce- - a- ce- - a- ce- - a- ce98 98 98 99 99 99 00 00 00 01 01 01 02 02 oa "pea" oa epaoo aa a ao pe a apaea a caae pex oea oeoo ypca aeee aoee oooax peepo.

aa pecayea aa ypca eee oa ocee peepa ypo p. pye oo a o ycexe ao o aa Pocc.

cee coca epe ec oa. B ape epae ooceo eaopa oypa po e, aa eepoyo (cocax ocoy pocccoo copa), ceoo co oe coox pyex cpec pacope oepecx ao aae oa cec ce o ao opaee pex caax ypca ycope eo oecee py.

B ocec cya capoaac: ceo aop eee pae, aeac, a eeooeca oypa aeo yyac. B x ycox epaoy ay e cocao ocooo pya oecea ay ay ypca py caoc aoo pa. Haoee peep c ae aac ea a Pocc oco poo oo eo opopoa po.

Hecop a ooae eeo epoa acyee oce, paoo xapaepyec poco eaaox acpoe, a po coxpa ycooc. oo yaax e aopo oy cococoa pe epa ao ep, apaee a pae exao peypoa paocpoo oc yoooex ao oepae caoc a poccco eeo pe.

C eee ax coo eox ayoo a Pocc oy oooc opaa aee ca eaocoo peoa cepxy. o cpay caaoc a aye oea ee ocee. Po M ca aeo cae. Ta opao, epa a epaoa o ocox coo pex epeao cpoce a ocpay ay cooeceo ae ypca.

% py./o.

Oeo co oe caoc aoo pa oe oa aae ooo ( eape oe ypc py oapy CA oao pae ae cc a 0,2%). B epo ooe eca o oeceaoc epe aa Pocc. Bo opo poco peoe ocpao a co copo copepo. p o cey cpoc a ay oepecx ao oaac yepe. accoc ao a oycoea x opoce opeoc pyex cpecax poee aee, pypoex ooa oa cee aacox oaaee, a ae oe epaoo aa, poeocppoaeo peoe ooe aoo ee ypca. ay Pocc yaoc ea ceyoo poca oeoo ypca aae eyeo oa. He oce po o cpa ceo coe e a e pye oap pocccoo copa. Ho ce e ocoa acya, o ce oc, pae ycoo o a pe epaoo aa eoy peypoa oce oc eeoo pa.





Bcoo oaoc a poe oe ac oa xapaepoaac aa ypca py epo. Oe, o epa a e ca coe e caa eee oceeo. Pace ycaoee ypca epo pocxoo a ocoe oaoo ypca py oapy CA opoo epo oapy a eyapoo ao pe. o oa oa py cc o ooe epo a 6 pye 62 oe a 20,7%, a peao pae a 6,5% (pace cea a ocoe cpeeecx ae ypca). Oe pex opo coca o oa oa 53 p. oapo. o a 17% e oaae ooo oa. oceoaeoe copaee oea pex oepa o cao, o-epx, c ooceo co occo a MMB , o-opx, c oee coo oepaoc eoc eaocoo aoo pa o cpae c pe.

Pacpe eaocoo aoo pa a ce peoo oe cococoa cy cy c 1 eap o opo oaeo poa ao copo py. Poccce oa o oy oooc poaa ay pyy, a a ETC, a a eaoco pe, y pee op.

Oao, aepecoaoc aa Pocc coxpae exaa ETC, oop coae pae yco ocya a e a po yaco opo pax peoo Pocc, acaa MMB o a cepee ee ecye cce opo paceo a ETC, acoc, cee occ ( 30 pa) poeee paceo ey peoa pa e opo oa o ooo peapeoo eopoa cpec yaca opo (100% eopoae o aeeo a 1,5%).

Mep MMB o yee occ paepo peapeoo eopoa c cyece poc pex oopoo. Ta, oe opo a eo cecc eape oea o 100 o 250 . o., oa a peye ec o axoc aaoe 50-80 . o.

8. BHEHEOHOMECE CB ame aac ape-cempe 2002 .

31 eap 2001 . a Pocc oyoa ae o aeoy aacy a apcep 2002 ., paoo oaec o peapeo oe cy oee ooo yea oepa acoo ceopa.

B ape-cepe 2002 . a oe peaoo ypee py poca ecx oeo BB cooc opa oapo aeo yeac o cpae c e e epoo 2001 . oee e, e o aa, poe e a oap pocccoo copa , pee ceo, a e a, e oo cooc pocccoo copa yec o cpae c ypoe ap-cep 2001 . ecop a ae poc ecx oeo ocao.

poe pox e a oap pocccoo copa opa pea oe ypc o ooe oapy (1 . 1998 . = 1) 1,1,1,1,0,0,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 1999 2000 2001 e copa e opa pea oe ypc cmou: MB, pacem a ocoe ax aa Poccuu.

B peyae poca opa caa copa ooee cao cea eyx oepa opooo aaca yec o cpae c ypoe ap-cep 2001 ., ocaac, e e eee, ae.

B ape-cepe 2002 . pooc poc ecooo opa, pe aeo oee cp, e yeee opa eo. C pyo copo, o eapecppoaoo opa poca o cpae c ypoe ap-cep 2001 .

B ape-cepe 2002 . opaeoe cao cea oepa c aao aco cpyea (a o poyc) copaoc o cpae c ypoe oo e epoa 2001 .

aeo yeoc peee ocpaoo aaa opopa ceopo. ye cya cepe poo ocpaoo peoa, coae, e pooo. oee oo, pe ec ceop eacox pep copac o cpae c ypoe ap-cep 2001 .

Oo pocccoo aaa acoo ceopa20 paec e ec o cpae c ypoe ap-cep 2001 . oao pae, % copa oapo ycy. Heooe cee poeocppoao ooee ooa BB.

p o ape-cepe 2002 . aaac eaa ee oceeoo apaca ooa o apaa apay.

aa copa opa oapo (ceooc cea) I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 1999 2000 2001 cop op cmou: Pacem a ocoe ax aa Poccuu (IV . 2002 . oea aa Poccuu).

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